Thursday, January 28, 2021

Playing the percentages

As Bob Dylan once sang: “You don’t need a weatherman to tell which way the wind blows.” 


But we love to get weather news, thinking that having a heads up on the coming precipitation, temperatures, etc., will make our lives easier and safer. Or at least we will wear the appropriate coat.


What you may not be surprised by is how often the forecast isn’t correct. I saw in today’s paper that there is a 70 percent chance that February will be way above average in terms of snow, since it follows a way below average snow January. This affects my life in no way at all, however. 


But I spent a few minutes reading about possibilities that are at least 30 percent likely to NOT happen. 


Bonus reason not to care: where would I be going in February this year, where snow might disrupt my plans?


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