Numbers can be correct but deceptive

Sometimes going out of your way to avoid criticism and blame can cause unanticipated problems, and the CDC has continued to err on the side of caution about the pandemic and how to behave.

I have no doubt that officials at the CDC are trying to do the right thing and provide the best guidance they can, but the confusion and fact-twisting that is all around us about Covid might just have something to do with ineffective communication.

For instance, in late April the CDC proclaimed some new rules for outdoor mask wearing, saying that "less than 10 percent" of virus transmissions occurred in outdoor events/situations. The truth is that the REAL percentage is closer to 0.1 percent. 

A New York Times Morning Report story said this is like saying that you have a less than 20 percent chance of being attacked by a shark -- the actual number is 150 annually worldwide. Both stats are true, but one is not only exaggerated but might change behaviors. 

The CDC has been and continues to be quite cautious, and I can appreciate that on some level. But sharing correct yet deceptive numbers is not cautious so much as political. God forbid anyone would criticize them! 

I see that a recent study found that 99.75 percent of hospitalized Covid sufferers have NOT been vaccinated. Yup, you CAN still get the virus after being vaccinated but the chances are vanishingly small. But that is a powerful statistic when trying to expand the number of people being vaccinated.

I was thinking while sitting in a funeral yesterday that there is a 100 percent chance of death for all living beings, which is true but not very helpful. The chance that I will die TODAY is quite small, and a number of choices I get to make can make that percentage even smaller. Don't juggle knives. Drive at the speed limit and stay on the correct side of the road. Avoid imbibing bleach. You get the idea. Death could still visit, but I don't spend any time worrying.

Words matter but people are often less attuned to subtle analysis than in "sound bites." We can bemoan that, I guess, but doing so is just what "smart" people do to dismiss the peasants. 

Ever wonder if professional writing is important? Just consider how shifting and unclear CDC language continues to affect politics, health, and trust in the government.