13 deaths are a tragedy, but 1,206 are just a statistic

Far be it for me to be skeptical, much less cynical, but this week's suicide bombing by some ISIS fanatics in Kabul is a good reminder of just how illogical the human mind can be.

About 100 died, and a larger number were injured, and seemingly everyone has a decisive opinion on the carnage and who should be blamed. 

A terror attack, with all the included media coverage, horrifying images, heart-rending personal anecdotes, etc., will always make the front page, as it were. That might not always be the case, should terror bombings become a daily event which, thank goodness, they have not. They are just rare enough to shock.

Gun violence in America illustrates this truth. Since our country experiences multiple shootings every day, and mass shooting every week, most of those incidents don't even make the paper unless they happen in the local area. Things that happen regularly are, by definition, not news.

Or look at some fascinating maps of seven-day averages for deaths from Covid, as you can do here. Granting the fact that some states are not reporting hospitalization and death stats daily, a quick glance at the map tells us that the west coast states and the former Confederacy are where people are dying at very high rates.

This is important information. Ignore the urge to immediately start making accusations and sharing unresearched theories about why the map looks this way, if you can (or at least for a while). The map I shared seems like raw data to me, which is something the news media needs to share.

I assume that since the map appears on the Washington Post website, some Americans will immediately dismiss it as liberal lies, though that idea seems to ignore the west coast states.

Anyway, the U.S. has averaged 1,206 deaths from Covid per day for the past week. Florida alone has averaged 242 deaths per day. 

Thirteen American military personnel died in the Kabul bombing, along with at least 80 or more people of other nationalities, mostly Afghans.

Death and suffering is always personal for the individuals and families involved. Statistics are never personal. A bombing made for TV packs a punch. A large number of older, unhealthy people (with minorities overly represented) dying a few at a time, spread out in many hospitals, does not make for good TV. Where's the drama? Where's the excitement? Where's the flash?

There is one model that predicts that another 100,000 Americans will die of Covid by the end of 2021 if nothing changes. 

There are 126 days left in the year. If the daily death rate remains at 1,206, we come up with about 150,000 deaths by the end of 2021.

That makes the model predicting "only" 100,000 look optimistic. 

But those deaths will not come close to equaling the "news value" of one suicide bombing that kills Americans.

And so the pain and suffering and protests and finger-pointing continues.