Let's run the numbers, one more time

Far be it for me to criticize the news media (ha!), but today's New York Times Morning Report highlights the fact that the odds for a fully vaccinated person in the U.S. getting Covid is 1 in 5,000. For places that boast higher overall vaccination rates, that can jump to 1 in 10,000.

I often point out that most news tends to be bad news, and the fact that a large chunk of the country overestimates the likelihood of being infected, even if vaccinated, should remind us that news often is not only bad but represents something out of the ordinary.

There are hundreds of putouts in Major League Baseball games each day, for instance, but only the most unusual and even spectacular will make the ESPN SportsCenter highlights reel each night -- a great example of "the expected" not making news very often.

Most people spend most (or all) of their days "acting right." A very small percentage of people don't act right. Guess who makes the news?

I'm sure the government, the media, political parties, and social media all contributed to this, but we are now living in a country where a large percentage of the population fears the pandemic too much, while another large percentage fears it too little.

The full report makes for reassuring reading. 

Playing the odds is sort of fun, and sort of pointless. After all, the chances of any one person catching one disease in one restricted period of time don't really help us plan our daily lives.

The chances of a 71-year-old white male living at least another 10 years is 71.8 percent. Not perfect, but a decent reason for me to have waited until age 70 to begin taking social security. There is certainly a chance that I won't live long enough to make the wait for maximum benefits to pay off. But simply surviving the next decade really pays off for me. I took that bet.

I see that about 72 percent of American drivers will get in at least one car accident in their lifetime, and that drivers average 3-4 accidents over their lives. Most accidents don't result in death, but they are not pleasant and usually expensive and can disrupt our lives.

But most of us don't think twice about leaping into the vehicle for a quick errand.

For the vaccinated, Covid looks to soon become just another fact of life. Like driving, where we stay alert, follow the rules, and anticipate weird actions by others, so keeping ourselves healthy should prompt us to wear a mask, even if vaccinated, in crowded places and to stay home when feeling sick, etc.

In Seattle on an average recent day, about one out of every one million vaccinated residents have been admitted to a hospital with Covid symptoms. That rate is beyond tiny. That makes driving look like a crap shoot, particularly during rush hour on I-5.

For the unvaccinated, the rates in Seattle over the same period jumped 900 percent. Those odds don't guarantee getting sick, but wearing a seat belt doesn't guarantee surviving a car wreck.

There are few guarantees. Smart people look for best odds, however.