More fun with the media and math

Journalists devote a large chunk of their work simply responding to reports and statistics. But in today's paper we find strong evidence that those reports, often filed in haste, are led astray. And that means lots of Americans are led astray.

Employments numbers this summer seemed to indicate that the Biden administration's plans were floundering and that the economy was stuck in place. But the system of gathering data in a vast country like ours means that economic reports must rely on sampling and then several revisions.

That would indicate that the media should both hold off on the quick takes while also playing the revised figures as prominently as the initial stats. Ha! Fat chance of that.

Here are two illustrative grafs:

The revisions have recast the narrative of a summer slowdown. In August, when economists expected a strong follow-up to the 943,000 jobs the economy added in July, the BLS announced the U.S. added only 235,000 jobs. Headlines dubbed it a “colossal miss” as job growth took a “giant step back.” Two months later, revisions based on additional data showed August jobs grew by 483,000, more than double the anemic original reading. It was the biggest positive revision in almost four decades.

When it was reported the economy added just 194,000 jobs in September, headlines called it “ugly,” “dismal” and “disappointing.” A month later, a revision showed the economy had actually added 312,000 jobs in September.

This story, BTW, is buried on the Washington Post website and I saw zero coverage of this in the Denver Post or New York Times. 

Life is not reducible to a horse race or contest, but journalism simply can't resist comparing and measuring and jumping to conclusions. Here, most of us had to take away a feeling of confusion and despair, however our own personal finances look. And then the media moved on to the next shiny object.

Look, I'm a fan of great journalism, but it is good to be reminded that we are at the mercy of forces that no individual can stand against. There is great journalism out there but there is precious little great analysis of the numbers, the stats, and the general trends. 

That is because time is required to let things sort out and clarify. 

And time is something the media can't afford. Of course, the federal government agencies that issue these preliminary reports are equally inefficient and imprecise.

No wonder so many Americans feel free to question pretty much anything.

And so we will continue to stumble into the future without a clear foundation of reality.