Today's example of the 'magic of three'

Here is the lead from a story in today's Washington Post:

A bachelor’s degree in anthropology from Ithaca College costs $132,656, on average, and two years later, graduates are earning $19,227. A philosophy degree from Oberlin costs $142,220 and graduates two years later make $18,154, on average. At Syracuse, a bachelor’s degree in studio and fine arts costs $137,888; two years later students who got one are earning an average of $17,624.

For more than 11 years, colleges have fought off attempts to hold them accountable for one of the most basic measures of student success: whether what graduates learn will provide them with the gainful employment they need to make it worth the price.

But with more data available, the hard truths about financial success (at least over the first two years after college graduation) are out for anyone to see and consider.

What caught my eye first here was that the reporter used precisely three examples, not two and not four. Three examples continues to be the most satisfying number of support items for most claims. One time is an outlier. Two times is coincidence. Three equals a pattern. Four examples seems like overkill.

This is quite important when we are creating thesis statements, organizing our claims and support, and writing our openings to essays.

From a strictly factual point of view, those comparative costs vs. income are startling, and most of us would at least pause to think about whether attending colleges with that disparity is a smart investment of time and money.

Of course, statistics are always vulnerable to cherry picking and to blinkered choices. Anthropology might not be a smart major to choose at Ithaca, for instance, but perhaps that degree in psychology produces much higher incomes. And maybe that foundation from Ithaca sets the stage for much better income as people develop more experience and they progress through their career.

The second sentence is the one that struck me as most negative. If universities know they are not giving graduates the assumed boost we predict, it makes sense for them to cover that up. And there are lots of other reasons to go to college beyond future salaries.

So, a couple takeaways: 

• when in doubt, use THREE examples to support a claim.
• beware of picking and choosing among the limitless stats that are out there.

Experience eventually teaches us that life is rarely as simple as we hope, and the nuances are where the fun and the wisdom lie.