Wednesday, November 10, 2021

We need more focused political parties, and (maybe) more political parties


I haven't spent enough time with a recent Pew Research Center report, but the results illustrate some of the difficulties our two-party system has run into over the past decade or so.

Here’s how Pew describes the nine groups they came up with after recent polling, on a rough spectrum from right to left:
  • Faith and Flag Conservatives (10 percent of the public, 14 percent of the 2020 electorate): Intensely conservative and much more likely “to say government policies should support religious values and that compromise in politics is just 'selling out on what you believe in.'”
  • Committed Conservatives (7 percent of the public, 9 percent of the 2020 electorate): Broadly conservative “with a somewhat softer edge, particularly on issues of immigration and America’s place in the world.”
  • Populist Right (11 percent of the public, 12 percent of the 2020 electorate): These voters are less educated than most other “groups and are among the most likely to live in rural areas, are highly critical of both immigrants and major U.S. corporations.”
  • Ambivalent Right (12 percent of the public, 9 percent of the 2020 electorate): The youngest of the Republican-oriented groups, the majority of them “favor legal abortion” and legalized marijuana even though they “hold conservative views about the size of government, the economic system and issues of race and gender.”
  • Stressed Sideliners (15 percent of the public, 10 percent of the 2020 electorate): The least politically engaged group, they “have a mix of conservative and liberal views but are largely defined by their minimal interest in politics.”
  • Outsider Left (10 percent of the public, 9 percent of the 2020 electorate): The youngest Democratic-oriented group “voted overwhelmingly for Joe Biden a year ago and are very liberal in most of their views, but they are deeply frustrated with the political system – including the Democratic Party and its leaders.”
  • Democratic Mainstays (16 percent of the public, 16 percent of the 2020 electorate): The biggest and oldest Democratic-oriented group “are unshakeable Democratic loyalists and have a moderate tilt on some issues.”
  • Establishment Liberals (13 percent of the public, 13 percent of the 2020 electorate): As “liberal in many ways as Progressive Left” but “far less persuaded of the need for sweeping change.”
  • Progressive Left (6 percent of the public, 8 percent of the 2020 electorate): The only majority White group of Democrats, its voters “have very liberal views on virtually every issue and support far-reaching changes to address racial injustice and expand the social safety net.”
Some quick addition gives us the following: 40 percent of Americans are "right of center," with 15 percent definitely in the center, and 45 percent of Americans "left of center." 

Among the 2020 electorate, the numbers are: 44 percent right of center, 10 percent in the middle, and 46 percent left of center.

There's a lot more in the report, which can be accessed here, but the country is a bit stuck right now. Those 10-15 percent sitting in the middle tend to NOT be very engaged in politics at all, but that group appears to be the most likely to be persuaded to vote one way or the other in a particular election.

My take is that neither party is currently offering many persuasive arguments that might change minds and that means no clear majority opinion is likely to arise any time soon.

That leaves us free to argue Aaron Rogers vs. Big Bird, and that gets us nowhere.

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