Hey, where did everybody go?

I wrote a post a few days ago asking about where all the workers have gone in the U.S. There have been lots of theories, particularly from the left, that workers have simply had it and are refusing to continue their dangerous, boring, and underpaid work (often all three).

Another theory, mostly from the right, is that the government has given out so much support that people can actually afford to quit their jobs and live on "relief" plus a few part-time gigs.

Both are likely not even close to the truth, which is that all the scare talk about what happens when the Baby Boomers retire -- too many retirees and too few workers, with social security and medicare facing insolvency -- was accurate. The unanticipated added factor is that lots of Americans have chosen to take some form of early retirement. 

There are estimates that 90 percent of the "missing" are actually older workers, from 55 on up. Anyone who is predicting that those workers are coming back are deluded. 

Teachers are a great example of how retirement really works. Very few teachers who opt for retirement, and many are still in their 50s, seriously consider coming back to the grind. Yes, they were incredibly dedicated and they were incredibly under-compensated during their work lives, but their pensions and assorted options for all sorts of part-time and volunteer work dampen any romantic notions about returning to the classroom.

The pandemic makes it far worse, of course, with the associated political battles and continuing "thank you for your service" tributes to educators always revealed to be insincere and fleeting. 

America has thrived for many years on young parents paying exorbitant child care expenses and on women being willing to take less pay and take on more responsibility in K-8 education particularly. 

And as long as the rich could maintain a large pool of uneducated, poor workers, there were always takers for even the worst gigs.

But various trends have now come together to upend the formula for the rich. Reduce the number of new immigrants. Drop the birth rate. Increase robotics and AI in factories and stories. Add in very large numbers of over-55 retirees from the "prime labor pool." 

I know I sound quite cynical when I repeat this, but the world sorts into the very rich and everyone else. Political parties are dominated by the very rich. 

The very rich will always be fine, in case you were worried about those souls. And they will be fine whoever is in the White House in a few years and whichever party is in power in state and national legislatures.

I'm not suggesting that the 99 percent give up or ignore politics or stop caring about the future.

But I might be suggesting that everything is local.