It's a new year -- though at times it feels like a tired repeat of the past two -- but retirements are in the air. Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer has officially announced that he is stepping down, bowing to the pressure to leave when Democrats can choose his successor.
Of more interest to many is Pittsburgh Steelers Ben Roethlisberger today announcing his own retirement after 18 years at QB. That is just seven years fewer than Justice Breyer has been on the court.
More generally, as of the third quarter of 2021, 50.3 percent of U.S. adults 55 and older said they were out of the labor force due to retirement, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of the most recent official labor force data. That is an increase of 2.2 percent from pre-pandemic estimates. Much of that may be temporary (due to Covid) but I don't see how we can be too surprised to find that as Baby Boomers age, the percentage of retired people rises.
Using that same logic, it is difficult to pretend to be surprised that employment is very tight. When we combine more and more older Americans leaving the workforce while birth rates have fallen and immigration has cratered, there has to come a point when there just aren't enough workers to go around.
People make choices and those choices have consequences. I read today that the world has missed any chance of erasing the pandemic and that one reason is that the virus just doesn't kill enough people to burn itself out. Think about that. Over 850,000 are dead (probably lots more) due to the virus, but that's just not enough.
I have seen some odd posts about Republicans being in trouble because more R's are dying than D's (though that was not the case in 2020). The problem with that view, statistically, is that not enough are dying, to be blunt. More to the point, though, is that as the country splits geographically in political choices, a pandemic that decreases voting turnout for one party by a fraction of a percent just reduces the margin of victory from 20 percent to 19.8 percent (I made up the numbers, but you get the idea).
Media pundits and media in general constantly seem surprised (shocked!) at things that were inevitable.
Once again, journalists have a tough time with statistics and math in general. America is a big place, with over 330 million citizens. Things can change, of course, and relatively quickly (as in gay marriage acceptance), but most analysts are skeptical about how fast our current political divides can evolve away from "I'm a R, so I must make fun of... (fill in your choice here)" or "I'm a D, so I need to make fun of... (fill in your choice here)."
Just as most Americans have grown tired of the pandemic (I would guess that my grandparents grew tired of WWII), and most appear to be open to simply declaring victory (or accepting some sort of truce) over the pandemic and simply moving on, they also wish for some sort of rapid change in how we all treat each other. Our impatience produces some progress, but it is never enough.
Back to retirement, someone leaving a job or position after many years can bring some excitement to many, with interesting potential "new" people in those jobs. There will be a new justice on the Supreme Court, and there will be a new quarterback for the Steelers. "New" is exciting... until the new wears off.
Some "retirements" are more involuntary, like the Broncos firing Vic Fangio as head coach and today announcing a new guy. Lots of shuffling, in lots of areas of life, and that is hardly new.
I hated to see David Letterman "retire" from his late night gig, but Colbert is doing fine and it won't take long until the only time we think much about Dave will be during a CNN documentary on late night hosts. Who thinks about Jack Parr, or even remembers that name?
Everyone gets replaced eventually.
The challenge is in doing something positive prior to replacement.
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