I don't know enough of the history and varied political issues that surround this crisis, which has made much of the world quite nervous for several weeks, but I do know this: there are no good answers or quick fixes there. We don't have any mutual defense treaties with Ukraine and no national appetite for any sort of "let's send in the most powerful army in the world" to bring back order.
Putin's incremental approach to reestablishing Russian power over Ukraine is smart, from my distant perch. No blitzkrieg or massive assaults. Just trucks and tanks rolling into areas where Russia has already placed many sympathizers or has paid off residents or simply appealed to some old ideas about the Russian empire. "We are here to save you. You're welcome."
We didn't do anything when this basic approach was used in Crimea some years ago and we seem unlikely to push things too far this time around. The rat is patiently munching on the cheese, so to speak, and Putin seems patient enough to wait out the short attention span of American politics. Perhaps Europe may feel more of a sense of urgency, as they are so much closer. But it would be hard to imagine any strong counterattack by European forces unless NATO signs off, and the U.S. has always been the loudest voice among NATO nations.
The Ukrainian military just is not large enough or strong enough to match the 150,000 troops menacing the nation on all fronts.
As history proves time after time: might makes right (or at least that's the way to bet).
This incursion into a neighboring country has risks for everyone, of course, including Russia, and you just never know how the modern, interconnected world will respond.
I will note that our nation's pundits are all over the place on Ukraine and Russia, with formerly staunch anti-Communist Republicans deciding that they can support an authoritarian state after all. And Democrats begin from the position of "we will not commit troops to a Ukrainian war," which means we are left with economic and political sanctions. They must not be all that scary to Putin and his gang of oligarchs.
It does occur to me that if those oligarchs feel significant financial hardships and lose significant revenue and markets, THAT might be the leverage that could reverse the Russian advances. But I wouldn't count on it.
I can already imagine so many "thoughts and prayers" for the safety of Ukrainians. But those will be just as effective as the thoughts and prayers for our daily barrage of gun deaths, school shootings, and gang violence.
In other words, not at all.
It gets you wondering about our national strategy of amassing a military that dwarfs all other nations in size and technology. We need a military, of course, to secure our own defense, but the national mood is to "thank them for their service" but keep them at home or inside their bases. And our foes know this.
Tough bargaining position for President Biden and other Western leaders.
We are, essentially, asking the bully to back off out of some sense of the greater good. We have promised not to punch that bully in the nose.
That doesn't work on the playground and won't work in Ukraine.
So let the rationalizations begin about why we are going to allow Russia to create a puppet government in Ukraine. The world is full of them already. What's one more?
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