Another week and another dramatic twist in the 2024 election narrative, and I am amazed that all the political pundits have the gall to show their faces/drop yet another commentary into the mix. Did anyone really see Kamala utterly destroying Trump on Tuesday, with the humiliation rivaling what Biden experienced in June?
Mainstream journalists don't really know what to do with Trump and his endless and outrageous stream of consciousness, and appear to have forgotten how to cover candidates like Harris and Walz who seem "normal," at least in our turbulent century. What they do understand is "keeping score," and they use whatever the latest poll may be to anchor, well, everything.
Of course, they don't really understand public opinion polling, so there is little available that could help a reader in Highlands Ranch make sense of all the competing numbers. I laughed at Trump pontificating about 93-2 and 72-27 with not a shred of context and without a murmur of dissent from reporters simply hoping for a soundbite. But I also admit that any poll results from last week already seem questionable. I know Americans hate each other, but the only evidence I have for that comes from social media and TV.
David Brooks has established himself as the "voice of reason" for the New York Times, staking out positions based on a combination of traveling the country listening to people and his own brand of personal ethics. If I could sum him up, it might be that he prefers to give people the benefit of the doubt, and that is decidedly not what makes for good TV or for more clicks.
His latest column suggests that American culture goes through regular phases and that the culture has become exhausted (bored?) with the drumbeat of "our country is failing... millions are invading... they're eating dogs" rhetoric. He thinks Kamala is riding on a new feeling in the zeitgeist, with Americans wanting something more hopeful and at least cautiously optimistic. Most people prefer joy to agony and unfocused fear. Kamala and her team have chosen to highlight the joy. Trump and his minions are doubling down on the hate.
What worked in the past is not guaranteed to work in the present or future. What wins one election may have little to do with the next. Biden won because he convinced just enough voters that he would make life seem a bit more normal after years of chaos. History will likely show that he did preside over more normalcy for most Americans, though there is always a lag between perception and reality. I see that gas prices are down nearly 15 percent nationally but all the media shares is that eggs are up 50 cents. Bad news sells, of course, but there must be a point where most people simply look at their bank statements and note that they are doing OK.
I also recognize that some people are so entrenched in their ideological positions that they will vote for whomever has a D or R after their name. The character or leadership or intelligence of the candidate are not important enough to force a different choice.
Yesterday, Trump blurted in Arizona that Kamala Harris is a "Marxist, Communist, Fascist, Socialist." He literally pulled four terms that he clearly doesn't understand and linked them all together, disregarding any sense of logic or just common sense... and hoping that at least one of those pejoratives will bring cheers from the cult. I assume he got what he wanted. He is doubling down on the hateful rhetoric about Haitians who came to Ohio (Ohio?) to work and avoid endless strife in their own nation.
Now they are getting death threats and bomb threats and AI-generated videos showing them "herding geese" for tonight's dinner.
There are millions of Americans who are right now discussing the existential threat posed by Haitian immigrants. They are afraid. They have lost the ability to fairly evaluate outlandish claims. They will vote for Trump.
That may be frightening, but let's get back to the latest polls.
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