Political choices run into the reality of math

Another example of how complex cause and effect can be in constructing arguments and in analyzing how something came to be can be found in the 2020 Census data I referred to earlier. The initial reaction was simple math: some states gained enough population to claim an additional House seat while others lost a seat.

More interesting is reporting today that some states did not match the predictions that the Census Bureau had made, based on their statistical models and preliminary data. When things do not turn out the way "the experts" predict, we begin looking for reasons that led to the unexpected effect.

Arizona, for instance, was predicted to pick up a seat, but did not. Florida was to gain two and Texas three. In the end, Arizona did not gain a seat at all, while Florida gained just one and Texas just two. 

None of those three states invested much time and money into preparing for the Census. Minnesota, however, picked up an unexpected seat after a five-year campaign to get people to respond to the Census. And New York only lost one seat, again after investing some money in encouraging their citizens to participate in the nation's headcount.

We can't do more than guess as to what larger effects states which are undercounted (as many suspect Arizona, Florida, and Texas to be) may experience. There will certainly be fewer federal dollars coming their way, which seems like a bad thing.

If the undercounted people are predominantly Black or Latino, drawing new districts may be affected, perhaps to the benefit of one political party.

As we build our arguments, the intricate and evolving relationship between cause and effect is where we need to spend a lot of time.

The stakes can be quite high. Consider the Biden administration's multi-trillion dollar proposals to improve infrastructure, education, and so much more. The discussions from all sides are all based on a proposed set of causes (hey! lots of money spent) and the much less clear effects that may result. 

Most students engaged in thinking about cause and effect by merely deciding to go to college. The "bet" was that investing x dollars and time in working toward a degree would produce a positive effect, like a better job or more money or just more satisfaction with life.

Don't you wish there were clearer lines that connect choices, investments, gambles and effects?